Monte Carlo Simulator
The Challenge Simulator replays trades you've already taken. This one looks forward: it plays your edge out across thousands of scenarios against a firm's real rules, and tells you how often that ends in a funded account — and which rule ends it when it doesn't.
Challenge rules
These are the headline rules of one representative plan — most firms run several. Check the numbers against the plan you're actually buying, and edit anything that differs.
We don't publish this per firm yet, so it stays your call — and it matters more than any other single rule. A trailing floor rises with your profits, so giving back a good run can end the challenge at an equity a static floor would have survived.
What one attempt costs. Used to work out what a funded account really costs once failed attempts are counted.
Target: $110,000 · Drawdown floor: $90,000
Extra rules (advanced)
Hitting the target early doesn't end the challenge — the account keeps trading, and keeps every way of failing, until this is met.
Largest share of total profit one day may contribute. 0 turns the rule off.
0 for no limit.
Your trading
Take these from your own journal, not from what you hope to do. Every number below is something a few months of records can tell you.
1.5 means a winner returns 1.5× what a loser costs.
Model detail (advanced)
How long you're willing to keep going. Runs that neither pass nor breach inside this budget are reported separately.
0 makes every winner identical — tidy, and not how trading works.
Spread and commission. 0.02 gives up 2% of the risked amount on every trade, win or lose.
Same inputs and same seed always give the same answer. Change it to draw a different set of scenarios.
The odds
Set the rules and your trading numbers, then run the simulation.
Once you're trading it
This tool works on the edge you think you have. These two work on the trades and the firms you've actually got.
How this is calculated
funded rate = runs that cleared every phase ÷ runs simulated · expected attempts = 1 ÷ funded rate
Rather than replaying one set of trades, this generates many independent trade sequences from the win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade you enter, then runs every one of them through the same rule engine the challenge simulator uses. No rule is reimplemented here, so trailing floors, daily limits, time limits and consistency gates are enforced identically.
The funded rate is the share of attempts that cleared every phase. It is reported with a standard error, which is the amount of uncertainty that remains at the number of runs you chose: more runs narrow it.
Expected attempts is one divided by the funded rate, which assumes each retry is independent of the last. When no run succeeded at all, the tool reports nothing rather than a number, because the honest answer is that the figure is beyond what this simulation can measure.
The random draws come from a seeded generator, so the same inputs with the same seed always produce the same result. A figure taken from this page can be reproduced rather than shifting on every reload. The fan chart shows the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of first-phase equity across all runs.